Gas Prices Do About Face And Decline As Diesel Begins To Cost More

Drivers Enjoy Break In Price Increases 2014-01-20-trend

For the first time in several weeks, the price of gasoline finally began to decline, but the news for truckers was mixed during the past week, according to the latest survey from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The average price of a gallon of unleaded fuel slipped downward just over 3¢ per gallon during the past week, according to the survey report, which was delayed this week for the Martin Luther King, Jr. Holiday.

The average price of gas fell to $3.30 per gallon, and while the nationwide average cost of diesel fell about a penny, the cost of diesel went up between 1¢ and 2¢ per gallon across the East Coast, New England and the Central and Lower Atlantic regions.

 Unleaded Costing Less Across All Regions

The price of unleaded dipped in every region of the U.S., although the declines were barely noticeable for drivers along the Gulf Coast and the West Coast of the U.S. For California, however, prices dipped as much as a nickel per gallon.

The biggest price decline came in the  Midwest region, which is known for wild price swings from one week to the next. Drivers across Michigan, Indiana, Iowa and Illinois felt prices drop just over a nickel per gallon, although the arrival of new winter storms this week has brought new problems at the pump, as refineries shift gears and try to meet an almost extreme demand for propane, the preferred heating fuel for many households in the Midwest.

Across the East Coast, New England and Atlantic States, the price of a fill-up dropped as much as 4¢ per gallon, although the Lower Atlantic states, barely saw prices move, in line with the neighboring Gulf Coast region.

Increased Demand Forecast Pushes WTI Crude Higher

While the forecast for gas prices is a long-term trend toward lower costs, the price of U.S. crude oil has been on a wild swing during the past two months, starting with dramatic price declines ahead of Thanksgiving 2013 that were completely reversed by the middle of December.

The volatile West Texas Intermediate futures closed at over $95 per barrel Tuesday as the International Energy Agency – not to be confused with the U.S. Energy Information Administration – announced global crude oil demand would increase by 1.3-million barrels per day this year, about 50,000 barrels per day more than originally expected.

The increase in global demand has put upward price pressure on WTI,  which is also under trading pressure as February contracts begin to expire. Traders are buying additional contracts to cover their positions ahead of those contract expirations, according to a financial report on CNBC.com.

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Gas Prices Start 2014 With An Edge Higher

National Average Remains Nearly The Same, But Regional Prices Increase

weekly gas prices
Weekly gas price trend for the U.S.

The price of a gallon of gas remained flat across many regions of the United States during the past week, according to the latest survey from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. However, the national average, which remains at about $3.33 per gallon, hardly tells the story for most areas, including the West Coast and New England, where prices edged higher by about two cents.

For the broader East Coast and the Lower Atlantic states, the price of gasoline nudged higher by more than 3¢ per gallon. It was the Midwest region’s 4¢ per gallon price decline that tempered the increase in the national averages.

The result is what appears to be a flat week-over-week price point, even though most Americans are paying higher gas prices.

Midwest Prices Ease After Major Hike In Recent Weeks

The cost of fuel in the Midwest dipped by an average of 4¢ per gallon during the past week, helping ameliorate a nasty series of price increases, particularly last week, which had troubled the region during the holidays.

The price of fuel across the nation’s heartland was about $3.07 in the middle of December, but it ended 2013 with average prices having soared to $3.26, and higher in some areas across the midwest. The current average has slipped downward to $3.22.

Diesel Prices Nudge Higher

The price of diesel also remained nearly flat across the nation during the past week, although the average price per gallon did go up, from $3.90 to $3.91. However, extreme pricing can still be found in the New England states and California, where the average price in both regions is currently $4.12.  The cheapest price for diesel is still found across the Gulf Coast states.

2014 Gas More Expensive Than 2013, But Diesel Is Mostly Cheaper

The price of gas, while declining for many months at the end of 2013, ended the year higher. Consumer gas prices for many drivers are starting 2014 higher than they were last year, and this is particularly true across the Rocky Mountain region, where the price of regular unleaded gas is 19¢ per gallon higher than at this time one year ago. For truckers in the Rockies, the price of diesel is 21¢ higher, per gallon.

The Rocky Mountain price averages are extreme examples, however, as most Americans, while paying higher prices for gas, are only paying a few cents more per gallon as 2014 starts, versus 2013. Drivers across the Gulf Coast and the Lower Atlantic states are actually paying less, compared with last year.

Diesel drivers are also paying less; in fact, diesel prices across the East Coast and Lower Atlantic states are upwards of 6¢ per gallon less; however, truckers and other diesel car drivers in California are paying as much as 7¢ per gallon more, demonstrating a broad disparity in the distribution of gas prices, from state to state and region to region.

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Gas Prices Pumped Up For Christmas

Prices Surge In Midwest, Pushing National Average Higher

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The price of a gallon of unleaded gasoline starting going up again, for nearly everyone in the United States, during the past week, breaking a brief downward trend that provided a respite for drivers. Just in time for the Christmas holiday, the Energy Information Administration’s latest survey shows the price of gas wrapped the week higher, moving up to $3.27 per gallon, erasing the price gains consumers had enjoyed at the pump just last week. Only the West Coast and Rocky Mountain states fared well last week, as prices remained flat in those regions.

Midwest Gets Hit With Price Volatility

Gas prices spiked across the Midwest, with surges over 8¢ per gallon in many areas, and higher in some. The average price of a gallon gas jumped from $3.08 to $3.16 during the past week. While winter weather may have contributed to the surge in prices, the more likely cause is the pricing volatility that can sometimes affect the Midwestern states.

Indiana Public Media reported just last month that profit margins at stations in some cities are half what they are in other regions of the United States. The executive director of the Indiana Petroleum Marketers and Convenience Store Association, Scot Imus, told indianapublicmedia.org some stations even sell gasoline below cost so they do not lose customers, but the flip side is the prices can often swing quickly — sometimes within an hour — to the upside.

Crude Prices Keep Rising Amid New Geopolitical Uncertainty

Texas toll roads
Whether commuting or traveling long distance, from Texas to New England, the cost of driving started going up again during this past week. This shot was taken near Round Rock, Texas.

The price of crude oil continued its stratospheric reach during the past week, particularly with  West Texas Intermediate futures, which were closing in on $100 per barrel during the past week.

The price of WTI had been as low as $93 per barrel at Thanksgiving, but the cost of January deliveries has exploded on the trading floor, this as investors fear supply disruptions of Brent Light Sweet crude, which is being affected by political unrest overseas.

Brent, meanwhile, continued hovering around $112 per barrel in thin trading ahead of the actual Christmas holiday. The price point is not only a high for December but all of 2013, and overall, prolonged price trades of Brent have not been this high since March 2012.

The overseas instability in Libya persisted during the past week, despite assurances last week that supplies would begin returning to normal levels. Add to that new problems in South Sudan, where political instability has continued to plague the new nation and the economic infrastructure, or lack of it, inside the nation’s borders.

A dispute over an oil pipeline that is shared with North Sudan, plus the potential for internal political strife within South Sudan, have resulted in a reduction of daily supply. Currently, the production of crude in the two Sudans is down about 45,000 barrels per day.

Diesel Prices Remain Flat Amid Gas Price Fluctuations

The pricing volatility that has affected both crude oil and the consumer gas prices does not appear to be impacting diesel fuel prices, according to the weekly EIA report. Prices for most regions were flat to just higher, with the Central Atlantic states paying a penny per gallon more this week than last. However, the broad U.S. average price for a gallon of diesel remains around $3.87 per gallon, the same as last week and about a penny per gallon less than reported two weeks ago.

However, the news may not remain so pleasant for diesel drivers, particularly truckers, who have to buy large volumes of fuel. The price of diesel typically lags behind the trend for gasoline, according the EIA 2013 surveys. If that trend holds through the holiday, truckers are likely to see their fuel costs increasing just ahead of the New Year.

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Gas Prices Finally Ease After Thanksgiving Price Surge

Prices Turn Downward, Although Crude Remains Higher

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Gas prices across the United States continued to relax during the past week, this following a month-long price surge that peaked in the days immediately surrounding the Thanksgiving holiday.

The average price of a gallon of regular unleaded gas, at the national level, is now $3.24, although drivers in some regions are enjoying $3.00 gas. The lowest official price, according to the weekly gas price survey from the Energy Information Administration, is $3.05, along the Gulf Coast.

Prices in the New England states and across the Central Atlantic actually rose by about a penny per gallon, according to this week’s EIA report. Prices in California and across the broader West Coast region were primarily flat, although some price declines were seen in scattered areas. The biggest price drops, during the past week, were in the Midwest and Gulf Coast, where prices were down by over 5¢ in each region.

For truckers, the news about this week’s diesel prices is more tempered. Diesel prices across the U.S. declined by about a penny in many regions, although for most drivers, prices were fairly flat, week over week. The price of a gallon of diesel, nationally,  fell from $3.88 last week to $3.87 this week. 

Prices Remain Above Seasonal Lows

For drivers nationwide, gas prices remain above their November 11 low, when the nationwide average had fallen to about $3.19 per gallon. In many regions, the price was well below $3.00, with the Gulf Coast enjoying the lowest prices of all regions, at $2.98. However, prices began ticking upward the following week, only to surge over the Thanksgiving holiday and in the days afterward.

The volatility in prices came from a number of sources, from geopolitical conflicts in Africa and the Middle East, to refinery issues in the United States. Futures prices jumped dramatically the week following Thanksgiving.

The price of West Texas Intermediate has slipped  from its high on December 10, when prices reached $98.67 per barrel, for January delivery. The WTI remained above $97 per barrel on Tuesday afternoon, and prices are well above their low of $92.36, on November 27.

Brent Light Sweet Crude, meanwhile, remains near $110 per barrel, having come off its early-December peak of $112.24, the highest it had been in 18 months. Brent, as a benchmark commodity, peaked about one week before dragging the WTI with it, in a speculative upturn driven by the lingering political instability in Libya and a dramatic decline in crude inventories at the start of the month.

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Gas Prices Level Off In Some Areas, Top Off In Others

Gas Prices Are Mixed As Diesel Prices Begin A New Surge

March 11, 2013 gas prices
Gas prices could be heading higher than government forecasters expect as Brent crude oil prices flirt with levels not seen since March 2012. Strikes in Libya and other supply disruptions have pushed Brent well past $112 per barrel, dragging WTI futures for January with it. WTI closed north of $96 per barrel Tuesday.

The recent upward turnaround in gas prices has begun to do another about-face, although the rise in fuel costs for some has continued past the Thanksgiving travel period. The lingering high prices and price increases continued to affect mainly the East Coast region, while most other areas saw prices level off or return to the declines that were enjoyed during October and the start of November. The declines may not last, however, if futures prices continue their unabashed escalation.

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The latest weekly survey from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows the average price of a gallon of unleaded gas is now at $3.27, down from $3.29 last week but still six cents higher than the seasonal and yearly low that was enjoyed two weeks ago.
The average price of diesel continued upward, and at a more brisk pace, during the past week. The average price of a gallon of fuel is now costing truckers $3.88 at the national level, but regional prices are as high as $4.06. Drivers in New England, broadly, in the east and California, specifically, on the west coast were paying the highest prices. The lowest diesel prices were to be found on the Gulf Coast, but prices there are still averaging about $3.78 per gallon.

Crude Oil Could Be Grinch That Steals Christmas

The price of crude oil has been quite mixed lately, and Brent crude has been heavily influenced by supply problems originating in Libya. An EIA report issued just before the Thanksgiving holiday showed the continued strikes at loading ports have depressed Libyan crude supplies by about one million barrels per day. Indeed, the price of Brent has remained above $110 per barrel since November 21, peaking at prices not seen since August, when other supply disruptions in Libya affected the price of overseas crude.

Gas station sign in Breezewood
Breezewood, Pennsylvania in May 2012, two months after the Brent futures’ last mad dash into territory above $112.

However, the markets took a new turn Tuesday afternoon as when Brent crude closed significantly above $112 for the first time since early 2012. Tuesday trading at the New York Mercantile Exchange brought a fresh price levels and pressures as the benchmark commodity flirted with the $113 level before retreating some later in the day. Brent crude has only been that at that level or higher on three brief occasions in the past three years, with March 2012 being the last time the commodity has priced so high. The cost of gas at the pump, during the late spring of 2012, reflected that pricing pressure.

Domestic crude, West Texas Intermediate, has also been under price pressure of late, and Tuesday’s trading session pushed the WTI dramatically higher in the wake of Brent’s Monday and Tuesday closings. WTI for January delivery swelled well past $96. WTI had been on a longer-term downward trend, closing even as low as $91.77 per barrel the day before Thanksgiving.

The price of WTI on the New York Mercantile Exchange was at $96.12 per barrel on Tuesday afternoon, just at 4 p.m., the first time since Halloween prices have been so high, and an increase of $4.35 per barrel, or about 5%, in just three trading sessions since the holiday.

Nevertheless, the EIA has maintained its forecast that January 2014 prices will rise, but only as a short-term event as season supply and refinery adjustments are made. The longer-term forecast is for consumer prices of gas to continue sliding lower during 2014. However, prolonged supply issues in Libya and Europe could impel traders to drive futures further upward, which is not originally a part of the EIA forecast.

The price disruptions on the futures markets, as have happened in the past few days, are not likely to leave consumers unaffected. The questions only will be whether crude prices level off, and if they do not, will retailers hold off hiking prices until after the holiday season? If retail distributors and operators anticipate significant supply cost increases in January, they could begin raising prices weeks before January deliveries get underway.

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Cost Of Driving Lurches Upward At Thanksgiving

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The price of traveling during the Thanksgiving Holidays surged during the past week, with the average price of a gallon of regular unleaded gas rising more than 7¢ per gallon, according to the latest weekly gas price survey from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The price of fuel had been declining rapidly during most of October, but the increase in demand for petroleum products, in advance of the holiday, has helped contribute to rising prices. The current U.S. average is back up to $3.29 per gallon.

IMG_4447 The average price of gas in the U.S. notched back up to $3.29 per gallon during the past week, although some regions enjoyed further price declines. In other areas, like Texas and Florida, the price of gas soared between 16¢ and 19¢ per gallon.

The week-over-week gains in gas prices did not affect the West Coast or California, where prices continued to drop during the past week. In fact, the average price of gas in California actually slipped behind New York state during the most recent survey, with drivers in the Golden State paying about $3.55 per gallon and New Yorkers paying an average of $3.57.

Price declines in the Rocky Mountain region were the greatest, however, with an average 4¢ per gallon decline in fuel costs at the pump. The Rocky Mountain region has the second-lowest gas prices in the U.S., being only one cent higher in cost than the average price across the Gulf Coast.

City by city, drivers in Miami fared worse than nearly everywhere else during the past week, with gas prices surging a whopping 15¢ per gallon in South Florida, and prices in the Sunshine state up an astonishing 19¢ per gallon. In Texas, the only other state where gas prices surge so much, the price drivers are paying at the pump lurched upward by an average of 16¢.

Drivers in Houston are paying about 17¢ per gallon more for gas, the only major city where prices jumped more than Miami.
The cost of diesel fuel finally reversed or halted its downward trend, as prices in nearly all regions increased by a penny or more during the past week. On average, truckers and diesel car drivers paied about 2¢ more per gallon during the past week, while drivers in the Midwest ended up paying as much as 4¢ more. Prices in California and the broader West Coast paid the same, with the average prices at the same levels as last week.

Year over year, most of us are paying less than we were at Thanksgiving time in 2012. However, that trend does not hold for Florida and Texas, the fourth and second largest states in the U.S., respectively, by population.

Regardless of the past two weeks’ trends of rising fuel costs, the EIA has not adjusted its December price forecast or its 2014 price projections. Fuel costs are expected to continue their downward slide through December and for most of 2014, with moderate price increases expected during peak travel times.

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Gas Keeps Getting Cheaper, Making For Early Holiday Gift

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The price of gas continues to fall across the nation, although the declines are a bit smaller as November gets underway, according to this week’s report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The EIA report shows the price of a gallon of regular unleaded fell to a nationwide average of $3.27, which is about two cents less than last week. some regions, as usual, enjoyed a larger decline than others. The Rocky Mountain states had the biggest weekly drop in fuel costs, with the average price at the pump down by about 6¢ per gallon.

Gas prices in South Florida
The price of gas across many regions is now below $3.30, with some areas, like the Gulf Coast, close to $3.00. Picture taken Mon., Nov. 4 in Oakland Park, Florida.

The price of gas in the Gulf Coast states was nearly at $3.00 per gallon, the only region that is that close, officially, to having three-dollar gas. For most of us, the price is between $3.20 and $3.30 per gallon. Moreover, gas prices in most regions are now lower than at the start of 2013.

By mid summer, the cost of driving had gone so high, many drivers were paying near or just over $4.00 per gallon for fuel. The price of diesel was even higher, making a fill-up for a trucker a costly endeavor.

The price of diesel is down this week, as well, following the trend of regular gasoline. However, the cost of diesel is not declining as quickly as with regular unleaded. The average price of a gallon of diesel is down about a penny per gallon, although some parts of the West Coast and California are seeing declines of 2¢ and 3¢ per gallon, respectively.

The price of gas is expected to level off by mid-December, according to a recent forecast by the EIA. The projected price of gas near the height of the holiday season is expected to hover around $3.15 per gallon. If current trends are any indication, some regions will have gas prices lower than $3.00 gallon, particularly the Gulf Coast.

On the futures exchanges, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was down to a five-month low Tuesday evening, after closing in on $93 per barrel. Even Brent is down significantly, moving closer to $105 per barrel. Tuesday prices fell considerably for both WTI and Brent, with the U.S. crude futures having fallen five out of the past six sessions.

A report from Reuters states U.S. oil supplies are up, reducing demand for future deliveries. The report cites an increase of about 2-million barrels of oil at a stock yard in Cushing, Oklahoma, which is the largest increase in supply there since December 2012.

When the glut of supply is matched with reduced refinery demand, the combination gives a one-two punch to the price of oil futures, which translates into lower prices at the retail level. However, due to oil companies’ accounting practices, retail prices declines, due to lower crude prices, typically time to manifest.

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Gas Prices Plummet, Fall To $3 In Some Areas

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The price of gas went into a near freefall during the past week, with many regions of the United States enjoying some of the lowest prices of the year.

The biggest decline in prices came for the Midwest, where the average price of a gallon of unleaded plunged nearly 12¢ per gallon to just under $3.20. Across the Gulf Coast, the price of gas is near the $3.00 mark, the lowest regional average in the country.

For the broader, nationwide average, the price of unleaded stands, officially, at about $3.29 per gallon, a drop of nearly 7¢ over last week, according to the latest survey from the Energy Information Administration.

One area where drivers are still experiencing higher gas prices is across the West Coast and California. Gas price averages in some areas are more than 30¢ above the national average, with a trip up the Pacific Coast Highway likely to set you back about $3.61 per gallon. Most Westerners, however, are paying about $3.42 per gallon; drivers across the Rocky Mountain states are divvying up slightly less, at $3.37 per gallon, on average.

The price of shipping goods over land has also become a little less expensive, with the price of diesel fuel dropping about 2¢ per gallon during the pas week. Overall, however, diesel prices are lagging regular gasoline in price declines. The average price of diesel remains in the high $3.80’s, with prices in some areas across the West Coast still well north of $4.00 per gallon, particularly in California.

However, the current price trend is likely to continue, and that will bring further relief to regular drivers as well as truckers, going forward. As the price of crude  oil continues falling, the retail price at the pump will follow suit, typically within a couple of months.

However, crude prices have been mixed in recent weeks. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is now well off it’s yearly highs, closing Tuesday at $97.46 for December delivery. However, Brent Light Sweet Crude remained well above the 100-dollar threshhold, primarily because of unrest in Libya this week. That political instability has shaken markets, but it has not caused a run-up in fuel prices like investors witnessed in August, when concerns in both Libya and Syria drove speculation of supply disruptions.

Even so, the EIA has predicted the winter driving season will begin with gas prices at their lowest levels of the year. The EIA is further forecasting gasoline prices to continue falling into 2014, with a brief uptick in January, which is normal for the start of a calendar year.
Gas price projections for 2014

Perhaps the best news for 2014 projections is for the truckers. Diesel prices, which have hovered near or above $4.00 per gallon for the past two years, are projected to finally fall to around $3.76 per gallon, on average, in the coming calendar year. However, those projections are subject to considerable fluctuations due to supply and demand issues, particularly where it concerns refinery capacity and the potential for supply disruptions during the winter.

EIA diesel price projections for 2014

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Gas Prices For October 21, 2013

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Gas prices across the U.S. slipped upward about a penny per gallon during the recent week, according to the latest survey from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The EIA report shows the average price of a gallon of unleaded gas is now about $3.36 per gallon, although many areas are enjoying substantially lower prices, particularly the Gulf Coast states, where the price of gas is about $3.12 per gallon.

The slight uptick in prices goes against the longer-term seasonal trend of lower prices, overall, for most U.S. drivers, and it is not expected to continue, according to a report this week in USA Today. That trend is being driven largely by lower futures prices, which fell below $100 per gallon this week.

Futures prices have been slipping considerably in recent weeks, although periodic price disruptions have caused spikes in futures trades, particularly where it concerns North African and Middle Eastern supplies. But the production of oil elsewhere, particularly in the United States, has helped offset those scares. Refineries are also now producing cheaper grades of gasoline for winter driving, which also contributes to the lower cost of fuel.

For drivers nationwide, the price of gas did, in fact, fall in a number of regions during the past week, including the West Coast and California, the Rocky Mountain states and for drivers in the Central and Lower Atlantic states. The cost of fuel dipped by about 4¢ per gallon across the West Coast, and about 3¢ per gallon across the Rocky Mountain states and New England, regions where the price of gasoline is still hoveing closer to $3.50 per gallon.

For truckers and other drivers of diesel-powered vehicles, the price of fuel was basically flat during the past week. The average U.S. price of diesel fuel was flat this past week, with some regions showing a penny per gallon increase in prices and others showing a dip of a penny. Overall, the average price of diesel is about $3.89 per gallon, which is identical to last week.

Year over year prices continue to provide a longer-term view that augurs great news for drivers in the weeks to come. Some analysits believe the price of gasoline is likely to continue falling through the winter months, driving the price of gas to the lowest levels drivers have enjoyed since 2010. However, that prediction could prove folly if a frigid prediction by Farmer’s Almanac proves true.

Farmer’s Alamanac predicts an especially frigid and wet winter season in the coming months, which means heating oil and natural gas supplies are likely to be strained under heavy demand. If home heating oil demand spikes, the prices in related, broader energy markets could come under pressure to increase.

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Government Shutdown May Help Gas Prices, But At What Cost?

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The price of gasoline continued falling across every region of the United States this past week, with the price of a gallon of unleaded fuel falling an average of 6¢ per gallon, on a nationwide level, to $3.37. The price data are included in this week’s survey from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Various regions had differing levels of price change, which is normal.

What is somewhat unusual is the relative equanimity found in those price declines, from one region to the next. Drivers on the West Coast, not including California, found the price of gas down by about 4¢ per gallon, while the largest price declines came in the Midwest, where the cost for fuel dipped by about 7¢.

The drop in prices has been welcome relief for drivers. Most of the gas prices across the U.S. spiked in June and July. Another spate of price increases happened during mid and late August, all against the backdrop of supply problems in Libya and the potential for a military showdown in Syria.

The focus of the next potential price disruption is already being seen in Egypt and Libya, this in the wake of a pair of covert operations in Africa over the weekend. U.S. special forces captured a wanted Qaeda leader in Libya, while another warlord was being sought in Somalia.

Oil futures graphic
Gas prices could be chained upward pressures due to geopolitical instability, even though domestic politics should bring down consumer demand and prices at the pump. Graphic: PhotoDune.net

Continued political unrest in Egypt, combined with the military operation in Libya, have caused futures traders to fear supply disruptions in those areas. Crude oil futures have been going back up in recent days, this after trading lower through most of September.

Sans the geopolitical instability in the Middle East, crude oil might be heading lower, this over fears of lower consumer demand in the face of a lingering government shutdown. Supplies from the North Sea have, at least, kept some price control on crude futures. North Sea crude is expected to reach peak supply levels in November.

Even amid the potential for short-term price increases, the longer-term trend has been one of extraordinary price declines. Overall, U.S. gas prices are down nearly 13% from their levels at this time last year. The average price of a gallon of uneaded, in early October 2012, was about $3.86.

Diesel car drivers and truckers are also paying less, both year over year and week over week. The average price of a gallon of diesel fell by 2¢ in most regions, with prices in the Central Atlantic and West Coast areas down by about 3¢.

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