Average U.S. Gas Price Stays The Same, With A Catch

Editor's Note: This week's report is being filed from Chicago, where we are on the road for a video shoot of the toll roads across the Midwest. As a result, the report will be abbreviated.

Gas price trend for June 30, 2014The price of gas did not move much during the past week, according to the latest weekly survey from the U.S Energy Information Administration. In fact, on a nationwide basis, the average price of gas did not move at all, remaining $3.70 per gallon.

However, regional price fluctuations did impact consumers, particularly in California and across the Midwest, where pricing volatility is the norm. For the Midwest region, the price of gas dropped about 2¢ per gallon on the week, while in California, the price of a gallon of regular unleaded pushed upward by 3¢, dragging the broader West Coast region with it. For consumers in the Gulf Coast states, the price of gas dipped by about a penny, after coming close to the $3.50 threshold.

Examined on an annual basis, however, the price of gas is significantly higher for most of us. Only drivers in the Rocky Mountain states have escaped the punishing price increases that have impacted the rest of the nation. In fact, the cost of gas is about a penny lower than last year. That price decline may seem trite, but it is significant when compared to other regions, where the cost of gas jumped dramatically.

For instance, in the Midwest, the gas prices are 28¢ per gallon higher this year, led by Ohio, where prices are about 39¢ higher than last summer. For the West Coast, which includes California, the price of fuel is about 17¢ per gallon higher. Even on the Gulf Coast, where the cost of driving is typically the lowest in the nation, retail gas prices are 17¢ per gallon higher. On a nationwide basis, the cost of fuel averages 21¢ more than at this time in 2013.

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Gas Price Trends Return To The Norm: Going Up

Weekly gas price trend for June 23, 2014The price of a gallon of gas returned to the $3.70 level during the past week, pushed in part by the increased demand brought on by summer driving, but more so by the radical instability that continues to shake Iraq. The national average and regional figures are reported in the weekly survey published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The $3.70 threshold represents the first time since the end of April that the national cost of fuel has been so high. Prices had been declining during May, albeit very slowly, primarily on lower demand in states like Florida and remarkable volatility in the Midwest, notably Ohio and Illinois.

Those declines had been held in check by a dwindling supply of crude oil Cushing, Oklahoma, a major supplier of crude to refineries across the nation. However, the military strife that has literally ripped Iraq to shreds in recent weeks has pushed the price of West Texas Intermediate to levels not seen since 2011. Trading started over $107 per barrel Monday, before settling at $106.17 by day’s end.

Crude prices were retreating sharply in after-hours trading late Monday night on news that extreme fighting in Iraq would possibly not affect that nation’s oil supply or refineries. That bit of good news, albeit speculation, was just enough to push investors to take profits on crude for August delivery, pushing the WTI down to $105.69 by 11 p.m.

Ohio Turnpike signs near Cleveland
Drivers across Ohio enjoyed a major price decline. For Cleveland, the cost of gas dropped 15¢ per gallon, according to the weekly EIA report.

Region by region, only Midwestern drivers enjoyed a dip in the price at the pump this week. The average regional price of gas dropped about 2¢ per gallon during the past week, the E.I.A. reported, a decline that was spurred by significant price changes in Ohio and Illinois. Drivers in the Buckeye state, on average, enjoyed a 13¢ drop in the per gallon price of regular unleaded. In Cleveland, the price declines were even greater, as drivers enjoyed a 15¢ per gallon drop in prices. Chicago, which often dominates Illinois’ price points, enjoyed a 9¢ per gallon price decline.

The Rocky Mountain states did not fare so well, and neither did the Gulf Coast states. Prices in Denver pushed upward over 7¢ per gallon as the broader Rocky Mountain region saw prices jump nearly 8¢ per gallon. In the Deep South, drivers in states from Alabama to Texas watched as prices pushed upward by about a 7¢ per gallon. However, the Gulf Coast enjoys the lowest regional price of fuel, at about $3.49.

For truckers, the cost of diesel is heading back up, as well, bringing an end to a six-week streak lower prices. Diesel fuel pushed up about 4¢ per gallon across the U.S., but prices along the West Coast moved even higher, up about 7¢ per gallon. The price increases were the largest endured by truckers since the end of February.

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ISIS Crisis In Iraq Creates Reversal Of Fortune For U.S. Drivers

Retail Gas Prices Rise Amid Turmoil In Mideast

Weekly gas price trend for June 16, 2014Forget about the pithy battles in Ukraine. The sudden takeover of much of northwestern Iraq by forces of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, better known as ISIS, has caused investors to bid up the cost of Brent Light Sweet Crude and, in particular, the domestic crude oil, West Texas Intermediate. The result for U.S. drivers is the momentary decline in gas prices has reversed, and with crude oil prices spiking at record levels, wholesale gasoline prices have already followed suit, leading to an anticipatory hike in retail gasoline prices that is already affecting American drivers.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest weekly survey of retail prices shows the average gallon of unleaded gasoline in the U.S. is up two cents, back to the $3.69 level it was two weeks ago. While the weekly rise was not as severe as some week-over-week price hikes experienced this year, it is a portent of things to come, particularly when one examines the crude and wholesale futures markets at the New York Mercantile Exchange, NYMEX.

Crude Oil Spikes To Record Levels As Whole Sale Gas Jumps

The price of crude oil has spiked well above $106 per barrel for WTI, and traders are bidding the price closer to the $107 mark, a level not seen since 2011. That is a price point not uncommon for overseas crude oil, notably Brent, which is now above $112 per barrel, a level not seen since last year. The more immediate impactor for consumer gas prices is the wholesale futures index. Reformulated oxygenate blends, RBOB, were trading nearly $3.08 per gallon on NYMEX Monday, which is about seven cents per gallon more than the previous 2014 high point on May 19. The reasons are clear: Investors fear major supply disruptions from Iraq at a time when global demand is increasing.

Retail Prices Could Begin Spiking In Less Than Two Weeks

What is the crux of all these numbers? If the trends over the past year continue, consumers will feel a pinch at the pump within ten days, with the weekly fuel survey reflecting a major spike in gas prices by the end of June. TurnpikeInfo.com’s research of RBOB shows retail prices tend to lag about 10 – 14 days behind the wholesale future prices, when looking at the trend lines adjacent to each other.

The problem could be worse in some regions and cities, in particular, where fuel costs are known to be highly volatile. For instance, Ohio has been enduring wild swings in gas prices for weeks, and the latest survey shows another 6¢ per gallon increase during the past week. Two states away, in Chicago, the cost of gasoline lurch upward by 8¢ per gallon, to $4.09. That erased price drops in recent weeks, and even stacked on additional costs for consumers. Even price declines in some states, where seasonal travel actually slows at this time of year, notably Florida, recent declines of gas prices continued but slowed. On a region-by-region basis, consumers were generally paying at least the same, and often more, than they did last week.

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Gas Prices Give Back Gains; Diesel Prices Take A Summer Dip

Last Week’s Gas Price Increase Erased As East Coast Enjoys A Summer Break In Price Hikes Weekly gas price trend for June 9, 2014

The price of gas reversed course during the past week as the 2¢ gains that were reported in the June 2 government fuel price survey were wiped out this week. The pricing news is journaled in the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. This week’s E.I.A. report shows the price of gas did a precise about-face, at least on a national level, while prices declined more so in many regions.

The Rocky Mountain States and the broader West Coast region, which does not include California, were the only survey areas where prices stagnated. At the national level, the price of gas now averages about $3.67 for a gallon of regular unleaded, exactly where it was two weeks ago. The biggest price declines were found along the East Coast, particularly in the Lower Atlantic States, where prices were down over two cents, on average, from last week. Along the Gulf Coast and in the Midwest, prices were also off by about two pennies, but for the Midwest, as usual, the average price data are distorted by substantial swings in fuel costs in certain states. For instance, in Ohio, which has endured substantial price volatility, the average gallon of gas costs 12¢ less this week.

At the city level, the numbers are even more telling. For Cleveland, the price of gas dropped about 12¢, much like its home state of Ohio, but two states over, in Illinois, the price of gas in Chicago only fell about 4¢ per gallon.

Truckers Catch A Break As Diesel Drives Below $3.90

Truckers enjoying lower diesel prices
Diesel prices are at a five-month low after the national average fell below $3.90 per gallon this week.

For the first time since January, the national average price of diesel fuel dropped below $3.90 per gallon, according to this week’s E.I.A. report. The price of diesel slipped downward by almost 3¢ per gallon during the past week, officially settling at $3.89. That price point is the best figure truckers and other diesel drivers have seen since the end of January, when prices began a continue climb to well over $4.00 per gallon.

While this week’s news is good for truckers, prices in New England, the Central Atlantic region and in California remain well above $4.00 per gallon. Only the drivers in the Gulf Coast states are enjoying relatively low diesel prices, as the average from Alabama through Louisiana is now about $3.77 per gallon.

Uncertainty Looms As Crude Oil Futures Soar Once More

While this week’s gas price survey is the best report from the EIA in about a month, the news is not likely to persist in drivers’ favor. The reason is the all-important crude oil futures index, West Texas Intermediate, which has been trading in record territory in this year. In fact, after-hours trades on Monday, June 9, were the their highest level of the year, and the highest level seen in three years. Investors trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange had bid the WTI up to about $104.50 per barrel as of 8:30 p.m. Monday night. That would place the futures index, at least on the NYMEX, within range of its three-year high, a portent of what could face consumers at the retail level come July.

Bloomberg News is citing a number of factors for the increase in the futures price, including tightening supplies of crude oil in the United States, which is the world’s largest oil market. Other factors included speculation in the wake of last week’s favorable unemployment report, which leads investors to believe more people will be on the road for business and pleasure in the coming weeks.  The likelihood of increased demand during the summer travel season, coupled with renewed demand from China, has investors eyeballing the possibility of tighter supplies amid increased consumer need.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported renewed unrest in Libya, where political discord during the past three years has severely disrupted production. Output is being reported at only about 180,000 barrels of oil per day, compared with about 1.3-million per day one year ago.

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Gas Prices Nudge Upward As Midwest Leads National Average

Price Breaks End With Start Of June And Summer Driving Season Weekly gas price trend for June 2, 2014

The cost of a gallon of gasoline slipped upward about two cents per gallon during the past week, according to the latest weekly survey from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The U.S. average cost of a gallon of regular unleaded is $3.69, as retail gas prices gave up a three-week respite and continued what has been a steady series of increases since the second week of February. Although prices did take a breather at the beginning of May, falling two consecutive weeks, those price declines were caused largely by significant price volatility in the Midwest, where the cost of fuel rises and falls in major swings from week to week.

Midwest Drivers Endure Shocking Rise In Gas Prices

In fact, it is the Midwest’s almost notorious volatility that has contributed to this week’s U.S. average price hike, with Ohio leading way. Drivers in the Buckeye State suffered a 6¢ per gallon leap in gas prices. At the local level, prices in Cleveland hopped up about 10¢ per gallon. In Chicago, prices jumped a heart-stopping 14¢ to push their way past the $4.00 threshold. In fact, prices in Chicago average $4.06 per gallon, although that is not the highest rate in the nation. Los Angeles is among the cities that shares the dubious distinction of gas prices over the 4-dollar mark, with the average driver in the city of angels paying about $4.18 per gallon.

Chicago aerial view of skyline and the loop
Drivers in Chicago suffered a 14¢ hike in the average price of gas, as unleaded hit $4.06 per gallon.

Region to region, the price of gas is spinning on an axis of uncertainty, with the cost of driving holding steady across a large swatch of the Eastern seaboard. The cost of fuel in New England remains around $3.73 per gallon this week, and prices across the Mid-Atlantic region held steady at $3.70.

In the Lower Atlantic, the cost of gas dipped by about 2¢. However, prices in the Rocky Mountain states and along the Gulf Coast were facing pressure to begin a fresh round of cost increases; on the West Coast, most drivers are paying about two-cents more this week than they were last week.

Crude Oil Prices Remain Above $100 Per Barrel

The increase in gas prices comes on the heels of renewed increase in the crude oil futures prices. Prices in early May declined slightly as West Texas Intermediate began to fall below $100 per barrel, but the bid on futures contracts quickly reversed. WTI peaked May 23 at $104.39.

After-hours WTI prices were trading at $102.54 Monday night, and Bloomberg News was reporting earlier in the day that traders are watching inventories closely before making any buying or selling decisions. In fact, trading volume was about 60 percent below the 100-day trading average, meaning investors are waiting on the sidelines for new inventory and refinery stock reports. The EIA issues such reports on a weekly basis.

Truckers’ Diesel Prices Holding Steady For Now

Meanwhile, the cost of operating a tractor-trailer rig, at least where fuel is concerned, remained nearly the same this week. Prices have been slipping down in tiny fractions for the past several weeks, and the national average of a gallon of diesel is now about $3.92. That is down about 10¢ per gallon since prices peaked on February 24.

However, there are plenty of areas where the cost of diesel is still well above $4.00 per gallon, including California, New England and the Central Atlantic regions. On the East Coast, truckers from Maryland to Maine were paying an average of $4.12 per gallon, while the price in California was about $4.10.

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Gas Prices Largely Unchanged, But Crude Heads Upward

Gas Prices Move Sideways For Most U.S. Drivers Weekly gas price trend for May 19, 2014

The national average price of a gallon of regular unleaded remained largely unchanged during the past week, according to the latest survey from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The cost of gasoline across the contiguous 48 states remained $3.66 per gallon.

Regional gas prices in the Midwest and on the East Coast moved upward and downward between 1¢ and 3¢ per gallon, while most other regions experienced hardly a change in the cost of fuel at the retail level. Some states helped drag their regional price averages upward or downward.

For instance, Minnesotans experienced an overall 3¢ per gallon price increase, contributing to a nearly 2¢ gas price lurch across the broader Midwest region. In the Lower Atlantic states, Florida gas prices did the opposite of Minnesota’s price trend, falling by about 3¢. That helped the Lower Atlantic gas prices dip by about 2¢ per gallon.

$4.00 Gas Remains In California And Other States

The good news for drivers is that the months-long trend of increasing gas prices has taken a breather, giving Americans a much-needed break from unrelenting fuel price hikes that have threatened to push gas prices near the $4.00 per gallon mark. That dubious pricing benchmark has already experienced in places, particularly California, where the average price of a gallon of gas is $4.16, according to the E.I.A. survey.

Hawaii gas prices are also significantly higher than of $4.00 per gallon, largely due to the logistics of getting fuel to the island state. GasBuddy.com is showing at least two other states that are within striking range of the $4.00 price level, that is those that are 10¢ or less from hitting that psychological price target.

Taken at the city level, New York and Chicago are just pennies from having a $4.00 price for regular unleaded, according to GasBuddy.com, where consumers report fuel prices. However, each of those cities has already witnessed that price point this year, according to the E.I.A.

The Crude Factor Likely To Reemerge In Coming Weeks

The current reprieve in noticeable gas price hikes has been due to a number of factors, most notably the final conversion from winter blend to summer blended fuels. The other factor is, of course, the price of crude oil, which drags wholesale gas rates with it. That, in turn, affects retail prices.

Gas station on Florida's Turnpike
Drivers have experienced a reprieve in the constant gas price hikes, but that may not last long as crude oil once again moves higher.

Crude prices had declined somewhat during the last half of April, but investors have been trading futures upward once more. For a short time, from April 30 to May 6, the price of West Texas Intermediate, the domestic crude benchmark, had actually traded under $100 per barrel. Since May 7, however, prices have continued an uneven climb over the $100/bbl level.

WTI futures were trading around $102.62 /bbl in after-hours trading Monday night, just before 11 p.m., according to charts at CNBC.com and at Bloomberg.com. Trading charts have a lag time of about 20 minutes.

Bloomberg was reporting Monday investors are concerned about dwindling stockpiles of crude oil reaching and emerging from a key facility at Cushing, Oklahoma, where a significant portion of the nation’s crude oil transits. Supplies at Cushing have been falling since the end of January, according to E.I.A. chart data, except for a minor bump in supply at the start of April. Supply levels are now at their lowest since the first week of December 2008.

Bloomberg reports that investors are concerned the dwindling Cushing supply could bring down the current supply levels across the rest of the country, which would lead to higher costs.

“Falling Cushing stockpiles is giving a general upward push in oil, and if they continue to drop prices will be further supported,” said Will Yun, a commodities analyst at Hyundai Futures Co. in Seoul, South Korea. He spoke to Bloomberg reporters by phone Monday.

In short, that means the current price level of WTI will be sustained, at the very least, and prices could perhaps go higher.

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Gas Prices Take Another Breather, Falling For Second Consecutive Week

California Drivers Get Big Break, But Ohio Gives Back A Large Part Of Last Week’s Price Drop

Gas price trend for week of May 12, 2014
Gas price trend for week of May 12, 2014

The average price of a gallon of unleaded gas dropped almost two cents during the past week, according the latest weekly survey from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The price of gas settled at $3.67, which is down from 2014’s high of $3.71, a dubious achievement attained only two weeks ago.

Unlike last week, when favorable volatility pushed Midwestern gas prices down significantly, this week’s gains were lead by moderate declines in the Lower Atlantic, Gulf Coast and West Coast regions. Each district survey area enjoyed a decline of about three cents.

The drop in prices on the West Coast was due largely to a deep decline in prices in California, where the average price of gas fell by more than a nickel per gallon. That relief may be scarcely noticeable, however, for a state where the average price of gas is still about $4.17 per gallon. Drivers in Los Angeles and San Francisco are still paying more than their state’s average. For drivers across the broader West Coast region, the price of fuel remained mostly flat, although prices did nudge upward a penny in Washington State.

This week’s gas price survey provided Midwestern drivers a complete opposite of the story that played out last week. Traditionally a volatile region, gas prices in the Midwest fell almost seven cents per gallon last week, led by a breathtaking 12¢ per gallon decline in prices in Ohio. This week, however, the cost of gas rebounded by 8¢ in the Buckeye State, which helped halt what might have been a broader regional price decline. Because of Ohio and other retail pricing hot spots, the Midwest gas price average did not move, remaining at $3.60 per gallon. However, drivers across Minnesota enjoyed a drop in prices, as did many motorists in Illinois. In fact, the price of gas in Chicago fell by 10¢ per gallon for regular unleaded.

Truckers Enjoy Slight Price Breaks As Diesel Cost Declines Slowly

The mixed news for U.S. drivers did not apply so unequally to truckers. Most of the nation’s haulers are paying somewhat less for diesel fuel over the past couple of weeks, and the declines that began at the end of April have continued, albeit at a slow pace. The average price of a gallon of diesel is now about $3.95, although for many truckers along the East Coast, the price ranges anywhere from $4.04 in New England to $4.16 along the Lower Atlantic states.

The price of gas on Florida's turnpike is well above the average for the Lower Atlantic region.
The price of gas on Florida’s turnpike is well above the average for the Lower Atlantic region.

In urban areas, the price can be significantly higher. For instance, in the Lower Atlantic states, the average price of a gallon of diesel is about $3.92 per gallon. However, the price of diesel was $4.09 at a service plaza on Florida’s Turnpike Sunday. In the inner city, the cost of that same gallon of diesel is as high as $4.25, far in excess of the highest regional average price, according to the EIA survey.

Crude Oil Price Declines Come To Halt Amid Concerns Of Declining Stockpiles In Oklahoma

Although the amount of crude oil being produced across North America continues to grow, the stockpiles of crude at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage facility continued to decline during the past week. Financial analysts interviewed by Bloomberg expected the stockpiles at Cushing to continue to decline, putting upward pressure on the price of West Texas Intermediate crude.

The price of WTI has come down from its recent highs, and the June contract had even been trading just under $100 per barrel last week. However, the price of crude has moved back over $100 per barrel. Bloomberg observed the cost of domestic crude is up about 2.2 percent for 2014, but compared with the trading prices only six months ago, the prices are up almost nine percent since Thanksgiving. That is in line with the overall increase since last year at this time, which is a contributor to the year-over-year gas price increases consumers have experienced.

Annual Price Changes Are Significant, And Not In A Good Way

The annual gas price differential is substantial, given that the EIA had forecast gas prices to fall through much of 2014. The EIA has revised a number of pricing and supply forecasts this year, amid a host of unexpected factors, mostly in overseas markets. Geopolitical instability and fuel supply disruptions overseas first pushed Brent Light Sweet crude significantly higher starting in the late summer of 2013, and by the end of Thanksgiving, Brent was soaring toward $110 per barrel, even while WTI was plunging. Supply problems overseas persist, and the Ukraine crisis has continued to cause instability in overseas markets.

That means what was supposed to be a cheaper summer driving season for Americans is not likely to happen this year. The current average cost of gas is about seven cents higher on a nationwide basis, but that figure is tempered only because of year over year price drops in the Midwest and Rockies, two regions that are notoriously volatile when it comes to pricing. Price declines for those areas are concentrated, at least this week, primarily in Minnesota and Colorado, respectively. For drivers in the state of 10,000 lakes, the cost of a gallon of unleaded is down a stunning 38¢ versus last year, while in Colorado, the cost of fuel is down by about 19¢.

The Colorado trend is exactly the opposite of what most drivers are experiencing, and it is part of the reason the national averages scarcely reveal the true annual gas price increase. For most drivers along the East Coast and down to the Lower Atlantic states, the cost of a gallon of gas is anywhere from 19¢ to 21¢ higher. Even in regions that have enjoyed a price break during the past couple of weeks, such as the Gulf Coast and West Coast, prices are 7¢ and 8¢ higher than last year, respectively.

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U.S. Average Gas Prices Fall On Sharp Regional Declines

First Gas Price Dips For Broad U.S. Market In Three Months, But Most Drivers Not Likely To Notice Weekly gas price trend for May 5, 2014

After weeks of unrelenting price increases, the average cost of a gallon of unleaded gasoline  declined about three cents during the past week, according to the latest survey from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. However, the drop in gas price will not be noticeable for most American drivers. The reason is that the national average was lead by a major regional price drop in the Midwest, where the cost of fuel dipped by as much as 13¢ in Ohio, and by an average of about 7¢ across most other states in the American heartland.

An Ohio Turnpike Service Plaza in May 2012. Average gas prices in the Buckeye State were just about this level last week. This week, the price plunged to $3.63 per gallon, leading the Midwest Region in a significant drop in gas prices.
An Ohio Turnpike Service Plaza in May 2012. Average gas prices in the Buckeye State were just about this level last week. This week, the price plunged to $3.63 per gallon, leading the Midwest Region in a significant drop in gas prices.

California contributed to a price drop in the Western regional states, but the decline in prices was confined primarily to Southern California, according to the EIA report. In San Francisco, gas prices remained largely unchanged. For the broader West Coast region, sans the Golden State, the price of gas actually ticked upward.

The news is almost anticlimactic for most drivers. Drivers in all but one of the survey regions are paying considerably more for gasoline going into the summer of 2014 than they were last year. In fact, Midwesterners are the only drivers paying less, but that is the result of this week’s price declines, and the region is given volatile price swings. The average U.S. gas price is about 15¢ per gallon more this year than last, and in some regions, the price is 25¢ more than it was at this time in 2013.

Prices Of Crude Oil And Gas Futures Down, But So Are Stocks Of Motor Fuel

The price of crude oil and blended gas futures has helped fuel recent price hikes for consumers, and while recent stockpiles of both crude and some refined fuels have increased in recent weeks, the actual refined motor fuel supply has been going down. That has kept consumer gas prices up, even when prices of crude oil or reformulated blend stocks have gone down.

But crude oil prices typically have wild price swings as investors bid futures contracts up or down, depending upon rumor and news. While West Texas Intermediate crude, WTI, is down from its recent highs, it is still hovering just under $100 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, NYMEX. Moreover, the WTI futures for June are still at price levels that have not been seen since the summer of 2011.

OilWTI’s counterpart, Brent Light Sweet Crude, also remains at high levels. The futures contract for foreign oil remained near $108 per barrel Monday evening, even though it has come down from recent highs that placed the contract over $110/bbl. Part of the reason is the continued geopolitical instability in Ukraine. The political tinderbox that is Eastern Europe flared over the weekend, with military confrontations in both east and west Ukraine.

The bloody clashes have impelled European leaders to begin to take seriously the need to diversify their energy sources, which could include some of the surplus U.S. oil and, crucially, natural gas reserves. A two-day conference of the Group of Seven ministers got underway Sunday in Rome, with the U.K. Energy Secretary, Ed Davey, telling reporters the G-7 was looking to diversify its energy supplies in the coming months and years.

“We’re determined after this crisis not to go back to business as usual,” Davey said. “Russia has tried to use energy as a weapon on several occasions now, and we’ve got to learn,” Bloomberg quoted Davey as saying. “It would be completely negligent of the G-7, the EU and our international partners not to read the message that [Vladimir] Putin is trying to tell us.”

However, many analysts believe any resources the United States could contribute, to help wean Europe from Russian energy, would take years to deliver at consistent levels. Anas F. Alhajji, chief economist at NGP Energy Capital Management LLC in Irving, Texas, told Bloomberg natural gas supplies from the U.S. likely would not start flowing until at least next year, and possibly 2016.

Still, Davey and the G-7 seemed determined there would be nothing short of a major overhaul in relations with Russia’s energy sector. “We’re determined after this crisis not to go back to business as usual,” Davey said.

How that will impact U.S. gas prices, both in the short term and the long run, remains to be seen. Natural gas is not used for fueling most U.S. cars, although many business and government fleets make use of natural gas for their cars. If supplies of natural gas tighten, due to new shipments to Europe, there is the potential for a longer-term impact on prices for other motor fuels.

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Gas Prices Lurch Again As Summer Driving Season Nears

Gas Prices Hit Levels Not Seen Since March 2013 April 28, 2014 gas price trend

The price of a gallon of regular unleaded gas went up for the 12th consecutive week, bringing the average national price to slightly more than $3.71, the highest fuel prices have been in almost 14 months. The new figures were released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration as part of the agency’s weekly fuel price survey.

For many drivers, the price of gas has either approached or far surpassed the $4.00 per gallon mark, particularly in urban areas an on the west coast of the U.S. Drivers in Chicago are paying an average of $4.03 per gallon, while further west, in California, commuters in San Francisco are paying an average of $4.27. In Los Angeles, the price is $4.33, on average.

Drivers on the east coast are enduring much the same fate, with the average New Yorker paying about $3.78 per gallon. Drivers in Miami were paying an average of $3.83 per gallon, and some stations in Fort Lauderdale, where TurnpikeInfo.com is based, were charging $3.95.

Russian Sanctions Impact Oil Deals And Possibly Turnpike Gas Prices

NY Times photograph of Mr. Igor I. Sechen and Pres. Vladimir Putin
ExxonMobil’s point man cutting a deal: Igor I. Sechen shakes hands with Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin in a celebrated contract that will, at least for now, be in abeyance. Mr. Sechen is one of several Russian people targeted by new U.S. sanctions that have created complications for the energy sector. Photo: Mikhail Klimentyev via New York Times.

New sanctions against Russia and, in particular, many of the monied inner-circle of President Vladimir Putin have pushed energy prices higher, once again. Investors bid higher on futures contracts for West Texas Intermediate on Monday, after the Obama Administration announced new sanctions that hit Russia’s energy sector hard. WTI for June was again moving higher Tuesday, with prices up $1.28 in early trading.

Among the Russian businessmen hit by new sanctions is Igor I. Sechen, the head of the state-owned Rosneft, which happens to have contracts in the United States with ExxonMobil. Mobil operates fuel stations on the tollways in Illinois. However, many of the turnpikes across the eastern seaboard are operated by Sunoco, which has a presence in Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware. Shell operates stations on the Florida’s Turnpike.

It was unclear how the sanctions would continue to affect business deals and, consequently, gas prices for consumers. The New York Times reported late Monday the leaders of many American and European oil companies had been working various contract deals for new oil exploration with Mr. Sechen, including direct conferences with Mr. Sechen and President Putin. Shell and ExxonMobil both conduct their own exploration and drilling, according to their investor websites. That could insulate both companies against some of the short-term price changes in crude.

However, Sunoco’s investor website reports that company buys its crude on the open market, which could make Sunoco more susceptible to fluctuations of WTI and its foreign-oil counterpart, Brent Light Sweet Crude.

Crude Oil Versus Gasoline Futures

No futures market has as much direct impact on consumers as the price of gasoline futures, which are up significantly in the past month, alone. Contracts for May delivery were at $2.81 per gallon on April 1, but as of midday on April 29, the contract was selling for nearly $3.05 per gallon. Current gasoline futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange, NYMEX, are at their highest levels of the past three years, according to NYMEX historical data.

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Gas Prices Reach Nine Month High On New Surge

Gas Peeks Above $4.00 On West Coast As 2014 Price Hikes Continue April 21, 2014 gas price trend

Not since the July 22, 2013 fuel survey have gas prices been so high; in fact, the current survey from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows the price of a gallon of regular unleaded is only one-tenth of a penny less than it was nine months ago, when prices were rising amid prospect of U.S. military intervention in Syria’s civil war. Of course, that number is the national average, and some prices at the regional level are much higher than the broader U.S. figure. As it stands, the price of gas is now $3.68 per gallon at the national level.

What is worse, at least one region, the West Coast, now has figures, officially, above $4.00 per gallon for the first time since March of 2013. The news for truckers turned sour during the past week, as well, as the price of diesel also rose about 2¢ per gallon to $3.97. Diesel had been holding stead or declining in most regions of the U.S. in recent weeks, defying the broader consumer price trend.

Futures Prices Fluctuating Wildly, Adding To Gas Price Volatility

Uncertainty in overseas markets, particularly with the persistent Ukraine crisis, have created a certain volatility in the futures markets, including the price of West Texas Intermediate. WTI futures were down about $2.00 per barrel in late morning trading Tuesday, but that was after hitting fresh highs on Monday that pushed the commodity to levels not seen since the beginning of March. At that time, the WTI flirted with $105 per barrel, but the price spikes were transient, only touching upon price levels were last seen during the summer of 2011.

So far, April’s upward run in the WTI index has been more persistent. The price increases in WTI have come despite the fact there has been an increase in crude oil stocks in recent weeks. That increase has had many analysts predicting futures prices would begin to decline. Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. in New York, told Bloomberg News this morning that the recent expansion of crude stocks was causing some bearishness in futures markets.

“The market is moving lower on expectations that we’ll get another supply build in tomorrow’s report,” Yawger told Bloomberg. As TurnpikeInfo.com reported last week, Yawger is one of many energy analysts who have expected futures prices to turn lower, which could lead to a decline in gasoline prices once summer gets underway.

Crude Oil Data Only One Factor To Consider In Price Analysis

EIA gasoline supply chart
U.S. gasoline supplies have fallen dramatically in recent weeks, all while consumer demand has been going in exactly the opposite direction. Chart: EIA.gov.

Yawger’s analysis may be inspired, in part, by the fact this is the time of year when crude inventories usually peak. Refineries have been taking on new crude stocks in order to produce more summer fuel blends, but the crude stocks only tell a part of the story.

The latest weekly petroleum report from the EIA shows overall refined gasoline stocks are down in recent weeks, exactly the opposite of the crude oil stocks. In fact, total gasoline stocks are down about 5% from their levels at this time last year, while the demand for gas is up. The EIA’s tracking data show the demand for consumer gasoline is up almost 5% versus this time last year, exactly the opposite of the gasoline stock data.

Furthermore, the anticipated duration of the current supply of refined gasoline and crude oil is  less than it was at this time last year. Finally, the mid-spring is the time when crude oil stocks have traditionally reached their highest levels before falling throughout the summer months, according to the last two-years’ worth of data from the EIA. That means the current spate of stockpile increases could be coming to an end with the arrival of May.

TurnpikeInfo.com Predicts Continued Price Increases During Short Term

Overall, the major factors contributing to gas prices do not portent well for consumers. There remains significant political uncertainty overseas, which has contributed to the price hikes in crude oil, both WTI and Brent Light Sweet Crude.

Add to that the lower overall supply of refined gasoline and higher consumer demand, and the pricing trend is likely to conspire against consumers for the next several weeks. Overall, gas prices are likely to continue rising through the late spring, at least.

Depending on how Europe prepares for a potential fuel supply shortage amid the Ukraine crisis, those fuel price increases could continue into next fall.

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